Global fossil CO₂ emissions projected to fall 0.41% in 2026, but total emissions may still hit a record
The Global Carbon Budget projects fossil emissions of 38.24 billion tonnes, while land-use emissions climb.
- Fossil CO₂: 38.24 billion tonnes
- Coal up 0.57%, oil down 1.89%
- Total with land use: 43.32 billion tonnes
The headline
According to the Global Carbon Budget 2026 dataset, global fossil CO₂ emissions are projected to fall about 0.41% in 2026, from 38.40 billion tonnes to 38.24 billion tonnes. Oil is down 1.89% (12.59 billion tonnes) and gas down 0.34% (about 8.06 billion tonnes), while coal rises 0.57% to 15.81 billion tonnes and remains the largest source.
The catch
Including land-use change, total emissions are projected to rise 1.34% to 43.32 billion tonnes, a possible record, because land-use emissions jump 16.75% to 5.08 billion tonnes. One year of falling fossil emissions doesn't prove a lasting peak: researchers would need to see reductions continue over several years. The data comes as COP31 talks continue in Antalya.
