HSBC upgrades India to 'Overweight'; Citi raises its Nifty target to 28,000 from 26,000
Both brokerages point to resilient earnings and a rotation of money away from AI-heavy markets.
- Citi target: 28,000 (from 26,000)
- 15-16% EPS growth FY26-28
- $10 oil fall: EPS +2%
HSBC
In a note dated 6 November, HSBC raised India to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' and cut mainland China to 'Neutral'. It cited resilient earnings, more reasonable valuations and India's diversification value in an Asian market dominated by AI stocks. It likes banks, industrials, consumer discretionary, insurers and hospitals, and names high oil prices and El Niño as risks.
Citi
Citi lifted its Nifty target to 28,000 from 26,000, about 12% above the 24,986 level cited. It expects Nifty earnings to grow 15-16% a year over FY26 to FY28 and raised the valuation multiple to 18x from 17x. It estimates a $10 fall in oil would narrow the current account deficit by 30-40 basis points and lift Nifty EPS by about 2%, and that a 100 bp rise in India's active weight could bring $12 billion of inflows. Risks include Middle East volatility and slower consumption. These are broker views, not investment advice.
