October retail inflation may have crossed RBI's 6% ceiling, economists say; official data due Thursday
Polls point to a reading of about 6%, up from 5.5% in September, as food costs climb. The official number comes out on 12 November.
- Sept inflation: 5.5%
- RBI band: 2–6%
- Official data: 12 Nov
What economists expect
A Business Standard poll of 11 economists puts October consumer inflation at roughly 6.05%. Rating agency ICRA expects 6.1%, up from 5.5% in September. If either forecast holds, it would be the first time since October 2024 that inflation has gone above the top of the RBI's 2–6% comfort band.
Why prices are rising
Food is doing most of the damage. ICRA thinks food and drink inflation went above 8% in October. Part of the jump is also a quirk of comparison: prices a year ago were pulled down by GST rate cuts, so the yearly change now looks larger.
What it means for you
Higher inflation means your grocery bill and savings both feel it. It also makes another RBI rate hike more likely. ICRA's Aditi Nayar says she expects one at the December policy meeting, which could push loan EMIs up. Fixed-deposit savers, on the other hand, may see better rates.
